AT A GLANCE
The north-central and northeastern U.S. are expected to see a cool October.
Much of the Lower 48 should experience a milder November and December.
The West can expect a warm October, especially the Pacific Northwest.
The exception may be parts of the South, where it may be cooler than average in November and December.
After a warm September for many Americans, weather experts say October may feel much more fall-like across the north-central and northeastern United States. However, the chilly weather may be replaced by milder temperatures for the start of winter.
From Weather.com: Near- or below-average temperatures are expected in October from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Northeast, according to the latest outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business. The greatest chance for colder-than-average temperatures will be in the upper Midwest, western Great Lakes and parts of northern New York and northern Vermont.
The nation’s southern tier is expected to see near- or slightly above-average temperatures in October while above-average warmth is forecast to dominate much of the West, especially the Pacific Northwest.
After a cooler October, relatively mild temperatures are expected to return in November and December for the beginning of winter.
November
The northern tier of the U.S. has the greatest chance of warmer-than-average temperatures during fall’s final full month.
Near- to below-average temperatures are expected from New Mexico into parts of the central and southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The coldest conditions relative to average are expected to be found in central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
The remainder of the Lower 48 states are expected to see temperatures near or slightly above average in November.
December
Winter is expected to start out mild for a large swath of the U.S.
Far above-average temperatures are expected from the Northwest into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Temperatures may also be warmer than average in a broad swath from southern Oregon and northern California into the central Rockies, central Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.
Near- or slightly below-average temperatures are forecast from parts of Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley, mid-South and Southeast.
A broad swath from Southern California into the Desert Southwest, southern Rockies, lower Midwest and mid-Atlantic should see temperatures near or slightly above average in December.
This predicted December pattern of relative mildness toward the north and relative coolness toward the south is a common trait of El Niño winters. NOAA has issued an El Niño watch and projects a 65- to 70-percent chance of El Niño conditions by this winter.
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